FREDERICKTOWN — Fredericktown Local Schools is expected to operate at a revenue loss in 2027, according to the treasurer’s recent five-year forecast.
The information-filled forecast was presented at May’s board of education meeting by district treasurer Heather Darnold on Tuesday.
Darnold’s five-year forecast is currently based on Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine’s proposed budget, which is based on 2018 funding levels. Another proposed budget is the Statehouse’s budget, which is based on 2022 funding levels. It’s currently passed in the house and awaits a decision from the senate.
The main difference between 2018 and 2022 funding levels is where the money follows open-enrolled students. In the 2022 model, a district teaching an open-enrolled student would receive every dollar associated with said student, known as the “fair share funding plan.”
“There’s actually a million dollar difference between the two funding levels,” Darnold said.
However, the current forecast is based on the 2018 model, Darnold said, and if the 2022 version is passed a revised forecast will be presented at the June 9 board meeting.
With the district seeing a decline in unrestrictive aid, also known as state aid, it’s becoming further dependent on property tax allocations.
“So where last year we were about 27% dependent on property tax, we’re now almost 31% dependent on property tax,” Darnold said.
When looking at birth rate data from five to six years ago, Fredericktown Local Schools should have around 100 kids enrolling. As of right now, the district has 84 students, 21 being open-enrolled.
“So in my mind, where are those other kids? Where are those 20 kids?,” Darnold said. “They could be homeschooled. We know of at least two non-public, non-charter schools in Fredericktown. They could be attending there.”
Overall, at the end of fiscal year 2023, the district will have a surplus of revenue — but by the end of fiscal year ‘27, the district will receive a revenue shortfall where expenditures are projected to be greater than revenue by $1.1 million.
“If this continues this will erode the district’s financial stability over time,” Darnold said. “Now would be time for us to start looking at how to balance or fight to move forward.”
