MANSFIELD — The only thing people like to complain more about than the weather are the men and women who predict it.
“It’s the only job in the world you get to keep even when you’re wrong half the time,” goes a common lament.
Well, the professional prognosticators got it right this time with forecasts for the winter storm that dumped on north central Ohio last week.
No one can say they didn’t see this one coming many miles away.
On Jan. 29, the National Weather Service office in Cleveland warned us something wicked would soon this way come. Snow. Rain. Ice. Too early to tell what for certain. But something.
“Forecast models are indicating the potential for a large winter storm which may impact the region Tuesday night through Friday morning,” forecasters said at the time.
“(It) could be a long duration weather system.”
On Monday, the forecasters began to firm up the expected weather scene heading our way, predicting as much as seven inches of snow across north central Ohio.
When they started throwing around phrases like “potentially high impact winter storm” and “long duration winter storm,” we knew it was time to keep an eye on the skies.
The NWS said it would hit us Wednesday with a cold rain, up to a half inch, before changing to a wintry mix or snow later Wednesday night.
“The heaviest precipitation will likely occur Wednesday night through Thursday evening, which will likely be snow northwest of I-71 and a wintry mix southeast of I-71,” they said.
Even as weather experts at The Weather Channel were wildly (and inaccurately) predicting up to 25 inches of snow here, the NWS stayed the course, sticking with a much lower snow total (as if 10 to 12 inches was a light load, that is.)
Later on Monday, the NWS issued a winter storm advisory for the area, forecasting 1 to 3 inches of snow on Wednesday night and 3 to 7 more inches on Thursday.
We reported the information and residents responded by heading to the grocery stores and gas stations, prepping for what looked more like a certainty with every passing hour.
Richland County EMA Director Joe Petrycki’s message was not to wait until the last minute to get ready.
“Now is the time to start preparing for the winter storm that is expected mid-week. Make time before Tuesday evening to gather your supplies such as extra food, extra water, batteries, flashlight, etc.,” he said Monday.
Our stories cautioned residents that this kind of snowfall would make travel difficult, regardless of city, county and ODOT snowplowing efforts. There would simply be no way to keep up with it.
Street operations Supervisor Steve Brown said Monday his department was “all-hands-on-deck to prepare for whatever comes in.”
Brown said his department would have six large plows and five or six smaller plows working during the storm, focused on major thoroughfares and arteries and then minor arteries, side streets and residential areas.
“I have got all my guys getting prepared, making sure we’re fueled up, making tweaks, checking blades and fluid levels,” Brown said.
“If we have to, we will double- and triple-team on the major thoroughfares,” he said. “I don’t have a crystal ball to tell how much is coming.”
ODOT District 3 spokeswoman Crystal Neelon shared the same sentiment on Tuesday.
“Please give yourself a lot of extra time if you do have to travel,” Neelon said Tuesday. “We will be working around the clock, but don’t expect perfect road conditions.”
On Wednesday, the storm watch became a warning from 10 p.m. that night until Friday at 7 a.m. The NWS called for 7 to 12 inches of snow in our area.
“As a rainy day fades into a rainy night, temperatures will drop and the precipitation will change to snow around 11 p.m. as the massive winter storm spreads a mess of snow, sleet and freezing rain from the Rockies to the Plains, Midwest and parts of the Northeast through Friday.
“The storm is being fueled by a stream of arctic air roaring in on the jet stream from the western and central U.S. merging with moisture coming up from the Gulf of Mexico.”
Just as predicted several days earlier, the storm arrived right on time. Rain changed to snow overnight Wednesday, which intensified as Thursday went along.
Gusty winds created drifts as the day wore on. Visibility was limited.
Snow emergencies were announced by area county sheriffs. A Level 1 changed to a Level 2 and then even a Level 3, a first for Richland County Steve Sheldon during his 18 years in office.
City, county and ODOT plows worked around the clock. But as officials warned, there was no way to keep up when the snow fell as rapidly as it did.
Businesses closed early Thursday, if they opened at all. Government offices shut down. Schools were closed Thursday and Friday.
“The roads are getting pretty bad out there,” Sheldon said late Thursday afternoon after going to a Level 3, which banned non-emergency travel.
“My staff and I talked talked to (county EMA Director) Joe Petrycki five or six times and (county engineer) Adam Gove five or six times today and it’s getting kind of treacherous,” the sheriff said.
With the roads closed, the battle became a personal issue Thursday. Snow shovels were in use at homes across the region. Snow blowers roared in neighborhoods as residents worked to keep up with snow and drifts.
As Friday morning dawned, residents got the first real look at what Mother Nature had been working on during the night Thursday. It was as beautiful as it was dangerous.
The shovels and blowers were again put to use on sidewalks, driveways, porches and patios. Snow plows continued to operate, manned by drivers who had seen little rest since the storm began.
The efforts paid off. Level 3s changed to Level 2s and then to Level 1s. Winter weather advisories ended. Bitter cold temperatures, yes. But the snow was largely done by noon.
Snow totals varied across the county, but 10 to 12 inches of the white stuff seemed to be a good average.
As north central Ohio came back to life Friday afternoon and into the evening, it was clear much work still needed to be done. Some streets still needed work, an effort that will continue.
No one, however, could blame the National Weather Service forecasters if they took a moment to self-congratulate. They told us this was coming a week ago and they nailed it almost down to the hour and inch.
There is a lot of winter yet to go. Heck, even the famous Pennsylvania woodchuck predicted six more weeks of winter on Groundhog Day last Tuesday (although Buckeye Chuck disagreed with him).
But we survived a big one this time, thanks in large part to accurate forecasts that allowed for preparation.
