LUCAS, Ohio — As his team limped back to the locker room after last week’s disheartening 41-0 loss to Division VII No. 1 Danville, Lucas coach Scott Spitler was looking forward to Week 10 —and beyond.
The Cubs already clinched a home playoff game before the first snap was taken in Danville, according to Drew Pasteur’s comprehensive website, Fantastic50.net. While the loss didn’t sit well, Spitler wasn’t going to fret over it for long.
“We’ve just got to move on,” Spitler said. “It was a big game against a good opponent and we wanted a different outcome, but it didn’t happen.
“It’s one game.”
Lucas (8-1) will host Reigning Sports Academy, a club team based in Columbus, on Friday. The Cubs, who finished eighth in Division VII in the final Associated Press state poll, will find out their Week 11 opponent Sunday when the Ohio High School Athletic Association releases its final computer ranking and regional quarterfinal matchups.
“We’ve just got to regroup and go back to work,” Spitler said. “We’ve still got a lot of things in front of us.”
Pasteur, a math professor at the College of Wooster and an Ohio high school football enthusiast, runs tens of thousands of computer simulations throughout the season to determine playoff probabilities. By his calculations, the Cubs will likely be the No. 3 seed in Region 24 of Division VII. The top eight teams in each region (in Divisions II-VII) qualify for the playoffs with the higher seed hosting a first-round playoff game.
Lucas’ most likely first-round playoff opponent, according to Pasteur, is West Unity Hilltop. He believes the Cubs have a 36 percent chance of hosting the Cadets (6-3).
Pasteur’s simulations suggest two other area teams, Mansfield Senior and Galion, will be on the guest list when the OHSAA hands out its postseason invitations.
The Tygers (7-2) host crosstown rival Madison (5-4) on Friday. A victory over the Rams would give Senior High an 86-percent chance of earning a spot in the Division II, Region 5 quarterfinals. Mansfield Senior’s most likely first-round opponent would be Massillon Perry (68 percent probability, according to Pasteur).
Galion (7-2) closes the regular season against traditional powerhouse Marion Pleasant (3-6). A win over the Spartans would give the Tigers a 90-percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs. Per Pasteur, Galion’s most likely first-round opponent would be Norwayne (56 percent).
Final computer ratings and first-round playoff pairing will be released by the OHSAA early Sunday afternoon.
