So which woodchuck do you believe?
Punxsutawney Phil on Gobbler’s Knob in western Pennsylvania emerged (or more aptly, was pulled) from his straw-filled lair Sunday morning and claimed through his Punxsutawney Groundhog Club members that he did indeed see his shadow.
According to legend, that means six more weeks of winter are on the way, dashing hopes for an early spring.
But his Ohio brother, Buckeye Chuck based in Marion, had no such vision.
Chuck saw cloudy skies and did not observe his shadow, meaning the pleasant days of spring are not that far away.
As part of Ohio’s tradition, Buckeye Chuck visits WMRN AM radio station every Feb. 2. This year, the event was at the Marion County Fairgrounds.
According to the Library of Congress, Groundhog Day is related to two other holidays Halloween and Mayday.
In his 2003 book Groundhog Day, folklorist Don Yoder traces the roots of Groundhog Day to the same cycle of pre-Christian festivals that gave us those two celebrations.
In astronomical terms, these holidays were the cross-quarter days, those days that fall midway between a solstice and an equinox. These festivals were apparently celebrated throughout Europe by the various tribes we now refer to as Celts. Yoder believes that they influenced the sense of time of all Europe and of the European colonies in America.
The fact is, when it comes to weather forecasting, we can’t even get two prominent whistle pigs to agree.
In reality, winter ends on the spring equinox, known also as the vernal equinox, on March 20 at 5:01 a.m. ET, regardless of Sunday’s prediction.
Phil has been predicting weather since the late 1800s. But in the last two decades, the land beaver and his handlers would be more accurate if they simply flipped a coin. He has only been right about 35 percent of the time since 2005, according to data analyzed by NOAA.
Phil’s call for an early spring last year came true. February 2024 was the third warmest on record for the Lower 48. March also ended up much warmer than normal, according to NOAA data.
Official forecasters, those with degrees and years of experience that far exceed woodchucks pulled from slumber, suspect Chuck may have it over Phil this year, at least in Ohio.
Their outlook for February calls for above-average temperatures, or a potential early spring, from parts of the Rockies through the South and much of the East.
Below-average temperatures from the Pacific Northwest into parts of the Midwest could be an extended winter. These regional trends are likely to continue into early spring, the center’s forecasts through April show.
So who to believe?
Perhaps the best answer is found in the wonderful comedy “Groundhog Day” released 32 years ago, featuring Bill Murray and Andie MacDowell.
If you haven’t seen it, why not use this Sunday to get some laughs about the notion of allowing groundhogs to predict weather?
Spring is coming. One way or another. Just don’t drive angry.
