MANSFIELD – Gas prices have risen considerably in March, and fuel experts believe that trend will continue through Memorial Day.

The state average gas price on Wednesday is $2.64 per gallon, three cents lower than the national average, according to AAA’s price tracker. The average price in Richland County is $2.71 per gallon, which ranks 74th out of Ohio’s 88 counties.

At this time last month, the state average was just $2.29 per gallon. The price hike can be attributed to several factors, according to AAA Ohio public affairs manager Kimberly Schwind.

First, crude oil prices have continued to rise since the beginning of the year, as OPEC has cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day. OPEC, or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, is an international government organization that sets oil prices. The organization, which includes 17 member countries and accounts for the majority of the world’s oil production and reserves, agreed to decrease oil production at the start of 2019, Schwind said, to balance the market. This has caused demand to rise as supply has dropped.

The U.S. has also put crude oil export sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, “which are two pretty big crude oil exporters,” Schwind said, although Venezuela’s production has dropped over the last year.

“There’s basically some supply concerns because of a lower amount of crude oil in the global market, and so that’s caused the crude oil prices to rise,” Schwind said. “So that translates to increases at the pump as well.”

There are also seasonal factors at play. In March, the “summer blend” of gas is typically introduced to gas stations nationwide, which causes prices to go up. The summer blend is created to lower emissions during warmer months, and it is more expensive to make.

More people tend to travel during the spring and summer as well, which causes an increase in fuel demand. Schwind said gas prices typically peak Memorial Day weekend every year, and she expects the same to happen this spring.

“It looks like we could expect to continue to see prices go up a little bit more as we get into the coming months and really peak as we get into the late spring and early summer,” Schwind said.

Last year, the state’s highest gas price average was recorded on May 25, the Friday of Memorial Day weekend, when prices topped out at $2.91 per gallon. State averages have consistently been 10 cents per gallon higher this year, which means some gas stations could see prices exceed $3 per gallon this May if that trend holds true. The last time Ohio gas prices hit $3 per gallon was in 2014, Schwind said.

Schwind said it’s important to put gas prices in perspective, especially considering the last decade as a whole; between 2010 and 2014, gas prices hovered well above $3 per gallon (the state average gas price for March 26, 2014 was $3.53 per gallon, which was 17 cents lower than the year prior), as crude oil prices surged to nearly $100 per barrel.

Over the last five years, gas prices have dropped below the $3 per gallon threshold, and Schwind believes people have simply gotten used to lower prices.

“I think the thing that’s important for people to remember, too, is that we’re not talking about extraordinarily high gas prices, we’re talking about higher gas prices than we’ve seen in the past few months,” Schwind said.

Schwind expects gas prices to level off after Memorial Day weekend. She said the biggest price increases typically occur during the months of March, April and May.

If last year is any indicator, surging gas prices will not affect summertime travel this year. Ohio saw “the highest Memorial Day travel we’ve forecasted in 13 years” last May, Schwind said, and the trend continued through the summer.

“We did not find that people really cut down on travel when gas prices last year were close to $3 (per gallon),” Schwind said. “So if those gas prices do make their way into the mid- to upper-two dollar range, we don’t expect that to really have a drastic impact on travel.”

Kenyon College economics professor Will Melick believes the perception around gas price increases has changed in the U.S. in recent years. The U.S. has seen an increase in domestic oil production, as it surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia last year in becoming the world’s biggest crude oil producer. The U.S. produced a record amount of oil in 2018.

This means more oil money is staying in the U.S. now than in years prior, when a higher percentage of the country’s oil supply was imported.

“It’s not exactly lose-lose if oil prices increase, for the entire United States, and so that’s been a change,” said Melick, who spent 11 years as a research economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C.

“Texas and North Dakota are definitely doing better if oil prices are higher, and that was less the case 20-some years ago, when we just weren’t producing as much oil.”

Melick believes OPEC restraints and the recent rise of the U.S. economy have caused the national increase in gas prices this year.

“I think it’s been a combination of a bit of both. So it’s not necessarily just bad news – I mean, if U.S. GDP is rip-roaring and we’re therefore consuming more oil, and therefore the price of oil is going up, is that a doomsday scenario? Doesn’t sound like it,” Melick said. “Sounds like a good thing. You’d expect that to happen.”

Higher gas prices still impact the average consumer at the pump, however. Schwind said high fuel costs hit lower-income residents the hardest, especially those who have to travel long distances to get to work.

“Any increase really impacts their wallets and their budgets,” Schwind said. “So unfortunately, it hits people the hardest that are just working and struggling to make ends meet.”

Schwind gave some tips for cutting down on mileage over the summer months:

  • Vehicle maintenance: Keeping one’s tires pumped and oil changed can increase vehicle efficiency and cut down on fuel used.
  • Smooth driving: Taking it easy on the gas and brake pedals will allow for a smoother ride and will use less gas. Schwind suggested “less aggressive” driving, especially on the highways, where the optimal speed for fuel efficiency is around the 60 mile-per-hour mark.
  • Combine trips: Accomplishing several errands in one trip can cut down on overall fuel usage.
  • Weight removal: Vehicles use more fuel when they have to lug around heavy items in the trunk, or in a truck bed. Removing those items will make the drive more fuel-efficient.
  • Car-pooling: Sharing rides to work, athletic events or dinners can reduce the amount of fuel used.