MANSFIELD — It’s become an annual November lunch bet between Richland County Commissioner Tony Vero and county Auditor Pat Dropsey.
What will be the final general fund revenue for the year?
Both men offered predictions on Tuesday for how 2022 will end — and both numbers revealed a figure that will be a few million dollars ahead of projections when the year began.
The revenue estimate upon which commissioners based their appropriations plan for 2022 was $39.3 million.
On Tuesday, Vero predicted the final number will be $43.1 million. Dropsey was $800,000 more conservative, projecting a final general fund revenue of $42.3 million.
“If I am wrong and Tony is right, I will be happy,” the auditor said. “A lot of (the surplus) has to do with the fact we had a good (local) economy in spite of (state and federal issues).
“But it’s not going to last forever,” Dropsey said, adding he will continue to remain conservative with his annual revenue projections.
“Part of my estimation is the simple fact I don’t want to put commissioners in a bad spot when it comes to appropriations.
“I would rather come in here (to commissioners) at the end of the year and tell them I was wrong and they have more money than we certified,” Dropsey said.
“That’s the way I have always been and I am not going to change,” the auditor said.
Commissioners, who have now finished 2023 budget meetings with department heads and other elected officials, will start next week the process of mapping a final spending plan for next year.
“We will have sessions with Pat again on what we think next year’s revenue will be,” Vero said. “But we expect to finish with a very strong 2022. We would have had a superb 2022 if sales tax revenues had continued from what we saw in the first quarter.”
Vero said sales 2022 tax receipts were running about 13 percent ahead of 2021 during the first three months of the year before rising inflation began to take its toll.
He said he expects sales tax revenues, the biggest driver of county general fund revenue, to finish the year about 3.9 percent ahead of last year.
Vero said commissioners will have to make decisions about what to do with the surplus revenue at the end of 2022.
“What do we do with that? We have a $1 million capital request from our maintenance department. Do we pay down debt? It doesn’t appear we can. What we do (with a surplus) remains to be seen,” Vero said.
“We expect to finish 2022 in a strong financial situation in spite of uncertain sales tax receipts,” he said.
